Speed profile dictionary

ABSTRACT

A speed profile dictionary and associated lookup tables are disclosed. A set of distinct speed profiles is defined using a statistical analysis routine. Preferably, the statistical analysis routine uses clustering. The speed profiles are then matched to location codes identifying physical locations on a road network and days of the week. Applications using historic traffic data may use the speed profile dictionary and one or more lookup tables instead of a complete historic traffic database, thereby reducing the amount of memory needed to store historic traffic data.

FIELD

The present invention relates generally to historic traffic data, and more particularly, relates to a speed profile dictionary for representing historic speed data.

BACKGROUND

Historic traffic data for a roadway may include travel time, delay time, speed, and/or congestion data for various times of the day, days of the week, days of the year, and so on. The historic traffic data may be obtained from roadway sensors, probes, and/or incident reporting systems. The sensors may use radar, acoustics, video, and embedded loops in the roadway to collect data that can be used to characterize traffic conditions. For example, sensor data may include speed, volume (number of vehicles passing the sensor per period of time), and density (percentage of the roadway that is occupied by vehicles). The sensor data may include other data types as well, such as vehicle classification (e.g., car, truck, motorcycle).

Probe data is point data collected from a moving vehicle having a device that can identify vehicle position as a vehicle travels along a road network. For example, the device may use cellular technology (e.g., cell handover) or Global Positioning Satellite (GPS) technology to monitor the vehicle's position on the road network. By monitoring the vehicle's movement, the probe data can be used to determine travel time, which can then be used to calculate speed of the vehicle.

Incident data is traffic data regarding a traffic event that obstructs the flow of traffic on the road system or is otherwise noteworthy in reference to traffic. Example incidents include accidents, congestion, construction, disabled vehicles, and vehicle fires. A traffic operator may enter the incident data into a Traffic Incident Management System (TIMS), such as the TIMS described in U.S. Patent Publication No. 2004/0143385, which is assigned to the same assignee as the current application. The traffic operator is a person who gathers traffic information from a variety of sources, such as by monitoring emergency scanner frequencies; by viewing images from cameras located adjacent to a roadway; by calling government departments of transportation, police, and emergency services; and by obtaining information from aircraft flying over the road network.

The historic traffic data may be stored in a historic traffic database, such as NAVTEQ Traffic Patterns™ database, which includes typical traffic speeds for many primary and secondary roads. Data in the historic traffic database may be used in routing applications allowing drivers to plan routes that avoid typically congested areas and receive more accurate trip time estimates based on likely traffic conditions. The historic traffic data may also be used to predict clearance time for a traffic event; to predict traffic conditions when sensor data, probe data, and/or incident data is unavailable for a particular roadway; to predict the probability of accidents; or for any other suitable purpose.

While the historic traffic database has many beneficial uses, there are still opportunities for improvement. One area for improvement is in reducing the storage requirements for the historic traffic database. Because the volume of historic traffic data is so large, it would be beneficial to represent historic traffic data in a manner that minimizes storage requirements.

SUMMARY

A speed profile dictionary and associated lookup tables are disclosed. A set of distinct speed profiles is defined using a statistical analysis routine. Preferably, the statistical analysis routine uses clustering. Clustering is a statistical analysis technique that analyzes the distribution of data over multiple dimensions and attempts to organize the data into “like” groupings. The speed profiles are then matched to location codes identifying physical locations on a road network. The use of a speed profile dictionary may reduce storage requirements of a historic traffic database up to 98%. The speed profile dictionary may also be used to identify erroneous input data, which improves the consistency and quality of a historic traffic database.

These as well as other aspects and advantages will become apparent to those of ordinary skill in the art by reading the following detailed description, with reference where appropriate to the accompanying drawings. Further, it is understood that this summary is merely an example and is not intended to limit the scope of the invention as claimed.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

Presently preferred embodiments are described below in conjunction with the appended drawing figures, wherein like reference numerals refer to like elements in the various figures, and wherein:

FIG. 1 is a block diagram of a computing platform for generating a speed profile dictionary, according to an example;

FIG. 2 is an example input of the speed profile dictionary application depicted in FIG. 1;

FIG. 3 is a flow chart of a method for generating a speed profile dictionary and associated lookup tables, according to an example;

FIG. 4 is a flow chart of a method of analyzing historic traffic data, according to an example;

FIG. 5 is a graph that depicts example statistics for a speed profile;

FIG. 6 is a graph that depicts an example speed profile; and

FIG. 7 depicts a speed profile dictionary and a speed profile dictionary lookup table, according to an example.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION

FIG. 1 is a block diagram of a computing platform 100 that includes hardware and software. The computing platform 100 may be a server, a personal computer (PC), a plurality of computers coupled together for parallel computing applications, or any other computer or computer system. The computing platform 100 includes a processor 102 that is operable to execute a speed profile dictionary (SPD) application 104 stored in computer-readable storage memory 106. The computer-readable storage memory 106 may be located within the computing platform 100 as shown in FIG. 1. Alternatively, the computer-readable storage memory 106 may be located external to the computing platform 100, such as on a flash drive or a CD-ROM disc, which is accessed by the computing platform 100 when the memory 106 is connected to computing platform 100.

The SPD application 104 generates speed profiles based on historic traffic data stored in a first data store 108. The SPD application 104 then associates the generated speed profiles with a cluster identifier to create a speed profile dictionary. The SPD application 104 also generates one or more lookup tables that associates location data and time periods with the cluster identifiers. The processor 102 then stores the speed profile dictionary and the lookup tables in a second data store 110.

The data stores 108, 110 include data organized in a data structure and stored in memory, such as ROM, RAM, and flash memory. While FIG. 1 depicts the data stores 108, 110 as being on the computing platform 100, it is understood that one or both of the data stores 108, 110 may be stored elsewhere and be accessible to the computing platform 100. Additionally, the data stores 108, 110 may be divided into more than two data stores.

FIG. 2 is an example input to the SPD application 104 depicted in FIG. 1. The example depicted in FIG. 2 is a table 200 that may be stored in the first data store 108. Other data structures may be used for organizing and storing the input data. Additionally, other types of data may be included in the input data.

The table 200 includes a location code attribute 202. The location code attribute 202 includes data associated with location information. The location information may include geographical coordinates (e.g., latitude, longitude, and altitude), traffic codes (e.g., Radio Data System Traffic Message Channel (RDS-TMC) codes and Vehicle Information and Communication System (VICS) codes), road segment identifications, grid or tile identifications, and/or any other method of identifying a physical location on or adjacent to a road network in the real world.

The table 200 also includes a day code attribute 204. The day code attribute 204 includes data associated with days of the week and other days of interest. For example, the days of the week may be represented numerically (e.g., Sunday=1, . . . Saturday=7). As another example, the other days of interest may be assigned numerical codes, such as 100=Thanksgiving, 200=Easter Sunday, and so on. Other coding schemes may also be used to identify days of the week and other days of interest.

Additionally, the day code attribute 204 may identify other conditions that may impact travel times. For example, the day code attribute 204 may include data associated with weather conditions, such as rain, snow, and wind. As another example, the day code attribute 204 may include data associated with road conditions, such as lane closures.

The table 200 also includes one or more time period attributes 206. The time period attributes 206 includes data associated with a speed value for a period of time. For example, the period of time may be fifteen minutes. In this example, there are ninety-six time periods, each associated with a speed value. Other time period durations may also be used. The speed value may be a number representing an average speed (e.g., miles per hour (MPH), kilometers per hour (KPH)) for the time period measured at the associated location. The speed value may also represent other values, such as the median speed for the time period measured at the associated location.

FIG. 3 is a flow chart of a method 300 for generating a speed profile dictionary and associated lookup tables using the data stored in the first data store 108. The method 300 may include organizing the historic traffic data as depicted in FIG. 2 if not already in this format. The method 300 may include additional steps not depicted in FIG. 3 as well.

At block 302, the SPD application 104 analyzes the historic traffic data stored in the first data store 108. Preferably, a cluster analysis is performed on the historic traffic data. Clustering is a statistical analysis technique that analyzes the distribution of data over multiple dimensions and attempts to organize the data into “like” groupings. However, other (supervised or unsupervised) analytical techniques may be used. For example, Fuzzy c-means, hierarchical, Self Organizing Tree Algorithm (SOTA), and other neural network approaches may be used. An example analysis is described with respect to FIG. 4.

FIG. 4 is a flow chart of a method 400 of analyzing historic traffic data stored in the first data store 108. The method 400 uses k-means clustering. K-means clustering works well with large datasets, such as the historic traffic data. In one example, the SPD application 104 may use analytic software sold by SPSS Inc. to analyze the historic traffic data. However, other algorithms and/or software programs may be used in the method 400.

At block 402, the SPD application 104 partitions the historic traffic data stored in the data store 108 into speed groups referred to herein as speed buckets. For example, the historic speed data may be grouped into 5 KPH speed buckets. In this example, the partitions are based on multiples of five and include speeds that are +/−2.5 KPH. The partitioning may ensure that a given location code's overnight speed is consistent among different days of the week.

The speed buckets are clustered separately based on the number of location codes present in each partition. The number of clusters targeted for each partition may be obtained using the following formula, where LC=location code and Target is the target output of clusters. Number of clusters=(partition LC count/total LC count)*Target+2

At block 404, the SPD application 104 constructs initial cluster centers. The initial cluster centers may be predetermined or be randomly selected. For example, initially the cluster centers may be randomly selected. Over time, the initial cluster centers may be predetermined based on the previous results of the method 400.

At block 406, the SPD application 104 assigns cluster groupings based on a distance to the cluster centers. Location codes are assigned to the closest cluster center. At block 408, the SPD application 104 recalculates cluster centers based on the location codes assigned to the cluster. This process of assigning location codes to cluster centers and then recalculating new cluster center locations continues based on the determination at block 410.

At block 410, the SPD application 104 determines whether there is a variation in the cluster centers. For example, if the cluster centers did not move after the last cluster center recalculation, there is no variation. Additionally or alternatively, if the cluster centers moved slightly (e.g., below a threshold amount) or are oscillating between two locations, the SPD application 104 may determine that there is no variation in the cluster centers. If there is a variation, the SPD application 104 returns to block 406. Otherwise, at block 412, the SPD application 104 outputs speed profiles, which are used at block 304 of the method 300.

Additionally or alternatively, at block 410, the SPD application 104 may determine whether a predetermined number of iterations have occurred. For example, the predetermined number of iterations may be 100. If the predetermined number of iterations has not been reached, the SPD application 104 returns to block 406. Otherwise, at block 412, the SPD application 104 outputs speed profiles, which are used at block 304 of the method 300.

Returning to FIG. 3, at block 304 the SPD application 104 defines a speed profile dictionary using the speed profiles generated by analyzing the historic traffic data at block 302. The SPD application 104 collects location codes 202 for each cluster and generates statistics for each time period 206 (epoch). FIG. 5 is a graph 500 that depicts example statistics for a speed profile. The graph 500 depicts the range of values 502, the ninetieth (90^(th)) percentile 504, and the defined speed profile 506. In this example, the speed profile 506 is defined as the mean speed value. FIG. 6 is a graph 600 that depicts an example speed profile 602. The speed profile 602 is defined as the speed values in time period 206 order, which comprises an entire day speed pattern for a given location code 202.

The speed profiles are combined if similar to ensure that the profiles have a unique shape. Similar profiles may be identified by performing a least squares error analysis using the following equation, where d represents the deviation between speeds for a given epoch.

$\begin{matrix} {{{Minimum}\mspace{14mu}{Least}\mspace{14mu}{Squares}\mspace{14mu}{Error}} = {d_{1}^{2} + d_{2}^{2} + \ldots + d_{n - 1}^{2} + d_{n}^{2}}} \\ {= {\sum\limits_{i = 1}^{n}\; d_{i}^{2}}} \\ {= {\sum\limits_{i = 1}^{n}\left\lbrack {y_{i} - {f\left( x_{i} \right)}} \right\rbrack^{2}}} \end{matrix}$ Each unique speed profile is assigned a cluster identifier for referencing purposes.

At block 306, the SPD application 104 assigns location codes and day codes to the speed profiles defined at block 304. FIG. 7 depicts a portion of an example speed profile dictionary 700 and a portion of an example speed profile dictionary lookup table 702. FIG. 7 is an example output of the SPD application 104 depicted in FIG. 1, which may be stored in the data store 110.

The speed profile dictionary 700 organizes speed profiles by the assigned cluster identifier. The speed profile dictionary 700 may include any number of speed profiles. For example, the speed profile dictionary may have 500-1000 different clusters to provide a good range of profiles with minimal loss of accuracy.

The speed profile dictionary lookup table 702 identifies a corresponding speed profile by location and day using the cluster identifier from the speed profile dictionary 700. In the example depicted in FIG. 7, the cluster identifier #5 is assigned to location code 5918, Monday through Friday. While the lookup table 702 uses TMC codes, it is understood that any location referencing scheme may be used. Additionally, more than one lookup table may be created. For example, there may be separate tables for holidays, special days, and/or bad traffic days due to weather, lane closures, and so on.

An application using historic traffic data, such as a routing application, may use the speed profile dictionary 700 along with one or more lookup tables 702 instead of using the entire historic traffic database. The routing application may be stored in the memory of a navigation system, a mobile telephone, a personal computer, a server connected to the Internet, or any other suitable computing platform. A user may request route guidance by providing information, such as origin, destination, departure day, departure time, arrival day, and arrival time, to the computing platform.

The routing application then calculates a route from the origin to the destination using known routing algorithms. The routing application identifies location codes associated with a physical location along the route and uses the location codes and the departure day to obtain a cluster identifier from the lookup table 702. The departure day may default to the day of the request; however, the user may specify a future date for planning a trip to occur later. The routing application obtains a speed profile from the speed profile dictionary 700 using the cluster identifier.

The routing application calculates an estimated time of travel for the route using the speed profile and provides the route and the estimated time of travel to the user. Additionally or alternatively, the routing application may calculate an estimated time of departure to arrive at a destination at the time specified by the user. Additionally or alternatively, the routing application may calculate alternative routes allowing the user to select a route that meets his requirements (e.g., shortest distance, fastest time, no highways, least amount of traffic).

Referring back to FIG. 7, if a routing application is asked to provide route guidance along the portion of the road network assigned TMC code 5920 on a Monday, the routing application uses the lookup table 702 to obtain the speed profile identified by cluster identifier #10. Depending on the time requested for route guidance, the speed profile identifies the expected speed of travel on that portion of the road network. While this example describes using the speed profile dictionary for routing, the speed profile dictionary may be used with other applications as well.

Other benefits may be realized from using the method 300 to generate a speed profile dictionary. For example, the method 300 may be used to identify unlikely speed profiles resulting from erroneous input data and/or processing of the input data. As a result, the speed profile dictionary may provide more quality and/or consistency than a historic traffic database.

Additionally, the speed profile dictionary may be used for portions of the road network not identified in the historic traffic database. For example, speed profiles may be assigned to location codes for which there is little or no source data based on similarities with other location codes. For example, the two location codes (one associated with historic traffic data, one without) may represent the same type of road (e.g., highway), in a similar area (e.g., city center), having a similar population.

It is intended that the foregoing detailed description be regarded as illustrative rather than limiting and that it is understood that the following claims including all equivalents are intended to define the scope of the invention. For example, while the systems and methods described herein used speed data, it is understood that other traffic data may be used in similar systems and methods. The claims should not be read as limited to the described order or elements unless stated to that effect. Therefore, all embodiments that come within the scope and spirit of the following claims and equivalents thereto are claimed as the invention. 

1. A computer-implemented method for generating a speed profile dictionary embedded in a computer readable memory, comprising: receiving, by a processor, historic traffic data associated with a road network in a geographic area; partitioning, by the processor, the historic traffic data into speed data ranges; analyzing, by the processor, the historic traffic data by partition to generate a plurality of speed profiles; determining, for each of the plurality of speed profiles, whether any other of the plurality of speed profiles are substantially similar and combing those of the plurality of speed profiles which are determined to be substantially similar to each other into a combined speed profile; assigning, by the processor, a unique identifier to each of the combined speed profiles and each remaining speed profile of the plurality of speed profiles determined not to be substantially similar to another of the plurality of speed profiles; associating, by the processor, each of the combined speed profiles and each remaining speed profile of the plurality of speed profiles determined not to be substantially similar to another of the plurality of speed profiles to location codes that reference physical locations on the road network and day codes that reference days of a week; and providing, by the processor, a lookup table that references the unique speed profile identifier by the location code and the day code, the unique speed profile identifier then being used to determine the assigned combined speed profile or speed profile of the plurality of speed profiles determined not to be substantially similar to another of the plurality of speed profiles.
 2. The method of claim 1, wherein the historic traffic data includes historic speed data associated with the road network.
 3. The method of claim 1, wherein analyzing the historic traffic data includes organizing the historic traffic data by the location code, the day code, and a plurality of time periods.
 4. The method of claim 1, wherein analyzing the historic traffic data includes performing a cluster analysis.
 5. The method of claim 4, wherein the cluster analysis is performed for each partition and the number of clusters per partition is equal to (partition location code count/total location code count)*target output of clusters+2.
 6. The method of claim 1, wherein analyzing the historic traffic data includes identifying similar speed profiles using a least squares error analysis.
 7. The method of claim 6, further comprising combining speed profiles that are similar.
 8. A system for generating a speed profile dictionary, comprising in combination: a processor; data storage; and machine language instructions stored in the data storage executable by the processor to: analyze historic traffic data within speed data ranges to generate a plurality of speed profiles, wherein the historic traffic data is associated with a road network in a geographic area; determine, for each of the plurality of speed profiles, whether any other of the plurality of speed profiles are substantially similar and combine those of the plurality of speed profiles which are determined to be substantially similar to each other into a combined speed profile; assign a unique identifier to each of the combined speed profiles and each remaining speed profile of the plurality of speed profiles determined not to be substantially similar to another of the plurality of speed profiles; associate each of the combined speed profiles and each remaining speed profile of the plurality of speed profiles determined not to be substantially similar to another of the plurality of speed profiles to location codes that reference physical locations on the road network and day codes that reference days of a week; and provide a lookup table that references the unique speed profile identifier by the location code and the day code, the unique speed profile identifier then being used to determine the assigned combined speed profile or speed profile of the plurality of speed profiles determined not to be substantially similar to another of the plurality of speed profiles.
 9. The system of claim 8, wherein the historic traffic data includes historic speed data associated with the road network.
 10. The system of claim 8, wherein the historic traffic data is stored in a data store and organized by the location code, the day code, and a plurality of time periods.
 11. The system of claim 8, wherein clustering is used to analyze the historic traffic data within speed data ranges.
 12. A computer-implemented method for providing route guidance embedded in a computer readable memory, comprising: receiving, by a processor, a request for route guidance from a user, wherein the request includes a origin, a destination, and a departure day and time; calculating, by the processor, a route from the origin to the destination; identifying, by the processor, at least one location code associated with a physical location along the route; using, by the processor, the at least one location code and the departure day to obtain a speed profile identifier from a lookup table, the speed profile identifier identifying in a speed profile dictionary one of a unique speed profile unique to the location code or a combined speed profile comprising a combination of substantially similar speed profiles; obtaining, by the processor, the identified unique speed profile or combined speed profile from the speed profile dictionary using the speed profile identifier; calculating, by the processor, an estimated time of travel for the route using the speed profile; and providing, by the processor, the route and the estimated time of travel to the user.
 13. The method of claim 12, wherein the departure day and time is based on the day and time the user requests route guidance.
 14. The method of claim 12, further receiving an arrival day and time.
 15. The method of claim 14, further calculating an estimated time of departure to arrive at the received arrival day and time.
 16. The method of claim 15, further providing the estimated time of departure to the user. 